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Is al Qaeda Coming To Town?

"When you relive all the patterns and note the ebb and flow of the Internet Jihad as it currently exists, one has reason for concern at this time. We are faced with one of two things: Either we are about to experience something quite dreadful, or it is another ploy from al Qaeda in a wicked psychological game at which they are experts."--Randy Taylor

By Randy Taylor, Independent Analyst

19 September 2008: I hesitate to write this for one reason: those who don’t have a history of tracking al Qaeda on the Internet or are hopelessly trapped in believing only what comes through channels from above will not understand this at all. I'll do my best to explain it and perhaps it will sink in. Better still, if you recognize and remember then some things become obvious.

Presently, the majority of the major al Qaeda password protected sites are offline. Most are by their choice as we have no control over many of their servers around the world. This situation appears to be related to one particular film from as Sahab, the propaganda arm of the al Qaeda terrorist group. The video titled "The Results of Seven Years of the Crusades" was released this week, but the password supplied to uncompress the file contents failed, and the film could not be viewed. That changed today, however, when the film was re-released without the need for a password.

To be certain, analysts are at work to break the password on the protected film and will eventually do so. The password protected file will be compared with the film released today for an extensive comparative analysis.

Meanwhile, some jihadists postings on the currently operational Arabic language al Qaeda forums introduced a great deal of speculation that this film could well contain coded messages to cells around the world. Additionally, numerous messages posted on the forums are alluding to operational plans that are currently underway. We are seeing calls to pray for the mujahedeen who have been dispatched to America and Europe. Abu Omar al Baghdadi has issued new orders to send terrorists to all corners of the earth, and no countries are excluded. There was also a recent interview with an al Qaeda soldier who mentioned that Houston, Texas might be in their sights. There are some other things about which I cannot detail further, but when paired with all of these strange events, we shouldn’t discount as being meaningless or a product of coincidence.

Perhaps taking a trip back in time to 2005 will put this into better perspective. I was monitoring the forums and chat rooms just as I am today and there were striking similarities. Al Qaeda password protected forums were shutting down about 6-7 days before the London attacks of July 7, 2005. The forums that were operational were useless as to any useful information and this occurred quite suddenly. I mean that anything posted was mundane, boring, useless talk which was odd.

Right now, it is like Déjà vu as the exact same thing is happening again.

The “regulars” in the al Qaeda forums, the people “in the know” about terrorism operations went silent in 2005 just before the attacks. They are silent today as well, and have been silent for quite a few days now. There were also some graphic files being used in 2005 which correlated with attacks around the world, but we won’t get into that. I will say this, however: al Qaeda ceased using them after the Mumbai train bombings.

When you relive all the patterns and note the ebb and flow of the Internet Jihad as it currently exists, one has reason for concern at this time. We are faced with one of two things: Either we are about to experience something quite dreadful, or it is another ploy from al Qaeda in a wicked psychological game at which they are experts. The release of the September 11th film while withholding the password and ability to view the film is quite interesting itself. Perhaps it was a ploy to build suspense by al Qaeda in a mind game, or possibly because the film is to be a prelude to something far more sinister and timing of the film is critical to the end game.

Either way, hackers didn’t delay or stop the formal film release. Hackers can’t stop this type of hand to hand communiqué distribution. It is as out of reach of hackers to stop these productions just as it is to get an inside man working for us to be in Osama bin Laden’s or al- Zawahiri’s inner circle. The system used by al Qaeda for distributing these films isn’t going to be stopped. There will always be a way to get it out.

As the war against terror and Islamic extremists has evolved at an accelerated rate since 2001, we seem to have forgotten some basic things about the enemy. We seem to have forgotten or simply shelved our own analysis and collective reasoning from back in 2001 and the months that followed. To be certain, we certainly have forgotten what was told to us by our enemies.

Al Qaeda is far more patient than we are. Our strategies change daily, monthly, annually whereas their strategy hasn’t changed much at all. They are staying with the original plan. It works, so why change it?

Al Qaeda (or al Qai’da) has not unleashed an attack to rival September 11, 2008 for a particular reason. They understand the American mindset. They understand the impatience of the American people who want to see immediate results in any military endeavor. They understand that if they had, then our strategy would have changed drastically and since they are inferior to the US in a military status, they must be patient. They also know we have forgotten, diminished and slowly let the memories of September 11, 2001 fade away. Soon, it will be time to relive nightmarish scenes of death and destruction within our homeland. It was established and recognized back in 2001 that al Qaeda strikes and then leaves the prey alone for many, many years until it is time to strike again. Our law enforcement agencies and intelligence people know that the reality is that when they come, we cannot stop them. It is impossible to thwart every plan that a group this size has made. If there are twenty truck bombs to be unleashed in a 24 hour period, we might be able to stop one or two if we are lucky.

I have heard multiple times over the last few years how we haven’t been struck by terrorists because we do such a good job of protecting the country. This is only partially true at best. I do not mean to diminish the work of the people out there protecting this great nation by any means. They are only operating on what they are ordered to do. I’m referring to the people that spew this nonsense that our efforts are the sole reason that there haven’t been any attacks. This is utter nonsense.

We haven’t been attacked because al Qaeda has chosen not to attack thus far. However, I think this will change quite soon. The al Qaeda cat has been patiently watching this mouse hole for many, many years. They always come back for better results. WTC in 1993 - and then they waited eight years to come back and finish the job. Eight years folks, think about what I’m saying. They warned us in 1993 that they would be back and we discounted the warning.

They (al Qaeda) know they are killing us economically and this is a wonderful benefit to them. Trillions of dollars later and the reality is that we haven’t really made much progress against al Qaeda or Islamic terrorism in general. The benefit to this is that they know that the weaker we are economically, the more difficult it will be to recover from a massive terrorist attack. We were doing just fine economically in 2001 before the attacks and look how bad it hurt our economy. As the economy grows weaker each day now, we become a more attractive target as to time frame. They told us years ago that they would benefit from our failing economy as we fought them through time. Now as our economy fails, they are watching and waiting to strike. They watch the markets as closely as we do.

If they hit us during September or October of this year, we would slip into an all out economic depression. They are simply waiting to strike. Al Qaeda cannot afford to allow the American economy to rebound. We are a tougher adversary if our economy is strong. They will opt to kick us while we are down.

Where we beat them back in Iraq, they gained in Somalia and Algeria. Where we pushed them into the mountains in Afghanistan they simply flourished east in the mountains of Pakistan where we are forbidden to hunt them and kill them.

All we have done is rearrange the chess board.

Be safe. Stay vigilant.