Northeast Intelligence Network
Jill St. Claire, Network Analyst
What you are about to read is a compilation of intelligence and information from various sources ranging from press releases from the White House to posts on suspected terrorist forums.
The opinions and theories stated here are those of this analyst’s based on the information that I have developed over the last 18 months.
Anything stated in this analysis that could be interpreted as a threat to the US or could be interpreted to mean that there could possibly be a loss to human life has been turned over to the federal authorities.
For those who choose not to be informed of the possibility of a catastrophic event occurring on U.S. land that intelligence suggests will make September 11th, 2001 look small in comparison, I suggest that you do not read the following.
The Possibilities That Exist….
al QAEDA’S NAVY
An Analysis Of Its Potential Danger
Jill St. Claire, Associate Director, Northeast Intelligence Network
resurfaced last week of Al Qaeda’s "15 Mystery Ship Navy".
Current intelligence suggests that it may very well be a fleet of
approximately 300 vessels, ranging in size from commercial fishing boats
to vessels large enough to carry chemical agents such as those used in ‘Dirty
Bombs’. (New York Post; 1 January 2003)
CBS News and the Washington Post first reported New Years Eve 2002 about US Intelligence reports, which had identified approximately 15 cargo freighters worldwide that had links to the Bin Laden – Al Qaeda Terrorist Network. (www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/31/attack/printable534789.shtml)
Perhaps these are the 15 vessels, which the United States and British Intelligence agencies traced back to a Greek shipping agent (with help from Lloyds of London) with ties to bin Laden.
The significance of this ‘Navy’ is of worldwide importance.
Recent horrific memory brings us to October 12, 2000 in the Port of Aden in Yemen. A small boat killing 17, and wounding 38 rammed the USS Cole.
On October 6, 2002 a small explosive-packed boat struck the French oil tanker Limburg, less than 400 nautical miles from the Port of Aden. Twelve of the 25-crew members were injured.
The US Navy had warned shippers on September 10th of unconfirmed reports of possible attacks against oil tankers in the Gulf and the Horn of Africa, but their warnings were unheeded.
This past summer authorities seized a suspicious vessel loaded with 750 tons of ammonium nitrate and 140,000 detonators!
US officials have also said that a large vessel was utilized to transport explosives used to bomb the two US Embassies in Africa in 1998 by members of Al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda’s No. 2 man, Ayman al-Zawaheri, and bin Laden’s shadow, have previously referenced the countries of Somalia and Yemen as two of the unstable Muslim countries that could be exploited and weakened to the point that the Jihadis could seize power.
I believe that they are well on their way to achieving this considering that the ‘Mystery Ship’s’ carry the convenience flags, AND are registered in both of those countries.
Britain’s top Navy Chief, Admiral Sir Alan West has said as recent as August of 2003 that urgent steps were being taken to locate the fifteen freighters. Frightening thought that US and British intelligence have lost track of these vessels.
Al Qaeda’s network has not made it an easy task in locating critical data as to their whereabouts. This is EXTREMELY opposite of the intelligence available to the Jihadi’s of the locations of the US Military, (their ships, bases, military statistics, etc), which is readily available to them via the Internet, and as I will point out, is used on a regular basis.
Several months back, posts started appearing on the Jihadi forums calling for the destruction of the USS Kittyhawk. The USS Kittyhawk was being tracked almost daily and their location being posted from data obtained at www.globalsecurity.org.
globalsecurity.org may not be the only website that this information can
be found on, it is the main one that the Jihadi’s refer to obtain
strategic military information about US Military. Here is an example of
what I am talking about.
The following are excerpts of posts found on some of those forums, roughly translated from Arabic to English:
And how about this?
So, we have a Jihadi asking for maps, and you will find out, globalsecurity.org website more than accommodated them.
The following post, found on the Arabic site called the ‘Repair Forum’ was going to be edited down, but I decided against it so that readers could get an idea of the scope of one of the places where the Jihadis are getting strategic military info….
This is just one link that shows the utilization of Globalsecurity.org in planning of attacks against the US and/or its allies. This one post lists dozens of links to various areas of global security. I have only included a few for reference here, and the rest will be listed at the end of this analysis.
I should also note that if you are unclear of the description of what is being referenced, I suggest clicking on the link, and you will understand the description that was offered in the translated Arabic.
Here is the link to the original Arabic Post:
The repair forum > The general forums > The political forum > by the photos تعال we with me watch all American bases in the Gulf
In Allah's name the most merciful
And said : " if I lived to an accepting : the Jewish Lakhrgn and the Christian from the Arab island ، until I do not أدع in her except a Moslem " Abu Daoud in his Sunna ( 3030 ) ، Al-Termezi ( 1606 ، 1607 ) and said good and right ، and the ruler ( 274 / 4 ) ، and Al-Baihaqi ( 207 / 9 ) ، Al-Emam Ahmed ( 32 / 1 ) by close words and the Albanian corrected him ، and at a Moslem ) without his saying : if I lived to an accepting (
And he was last what assigned is by him to his nation : " not to
in the Arab island two religions are left " the Musnad Ahmad ( 275 /
Note: Certain Links are inoperable due to content, but the content remains available, although not through our site by choice.
As for " a responsible " the rules antiquity Anman Fqqd and the facilitation next to the unbelievers of Britain America
1.His air fate base
The satellites photos to the base of his fate
Forms to the presence to the unbelievers and the singing parties and the pleasure in the Arab island in the rule of his fate
2.Kabous ’s port facilitation
3.The ships provision places by the fuel ( a projection )
4.The old base air
5.Facilitation of the airport of the international Alsib
6.The rule of the air Althmriat
The satellites photos are Althmriat foundation the air
The unbelievers Lnoagd photos are inside the rule
7.The facilitation of Salalah port
The site : http://www.salalahport.com
As for " a responsible " foot diameter and by each enthusiasm and a competition to the rules America unbelievers and the next facilitation
1. Al-Adid base ( an airbase on the new model gives a present to the unbelievers a Linmknoa from the Moslem extermination by high pans ( then a delicious to Qatar prince this great achievement !!!) and the rule of many is the one that will manage from her the appointed military ruler from toward Bush on the island an Alshrqr the moderate ، the one that will manage from her the Moslem destruction operations in Iraq then Egypt and the Saudi Arabia.
As for we are an action that wonder at
the degeneration that arrived to him " Qatar responsible " then
reporting to him : diameter Yaamir ، to I was believing that there
are a dispatch and a calculation ، then prepare the question a
response about the Moslem souls that will vanish because of your treachery
to the god and to his messenger ، and if I was believing that he is
not there a calculation and no punishment then is not to recently with
you. Here http://globalsecurity.org/military/facility/udeid.htm
The last one should sound familiar. Aden Port in Yemen is where the USS Cole was attacked in 2000.
Strategic Military Info Readily Available
The following are some of the facts about the USS Kittyhawk that are readily available to anyone at several different US websites including globalsecurity.org, although the US DoD site recently removed most if not all of their data concerning our military assets.
I would like to note that in ordinary times, Globalsecurity.org is a wonderful site, with a wealth of information….but these are not ordinary times…..this is a time of war, where all that is dear to us is at stake. From Global Security...
Tracking Al Qaeda’s ‘Navy’
While it is quite apparent that Al Qaeda has the means available to them to track and monitor US military activities on both land and sea, the US does not.
Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, author of "Inside Al Qaeda, Global Network of Terror," has been studying maritime anti-terrorism efforts and was quoted in the New York Daily News as stating, "Unless the international community invests more resources to monitor and track terrorist ships today, we are likely to suffer another 9/11 inside a port like the New York Harbor in the coming months." (www.nydailynews.com/news/wn_…3p107611c.html)
From the same article, the writer states that, "Terrorism experts fear that the world’s oil tanker, sea lanes and major ports are dangerously vulnerable to 9/11-scale attacks that would cripple world trade. They cite an alarming combination of factor, including terrorist-connected Southeast Asian rebels involved in piracy, the difficulty of tracking suspect vessels in the murky worlds of commercial shipping, and an Al Qaeda fleet that could be as large as 300 vessels."
Piracy Linked to Terrorists?Piracy of vessels is not something that is widely reported here in the US, but to give you an idea of how widespread it is, and how it is on the rise, look at the following maps for the first six months of 2003, and where some of these intrusions of maritime ships have occurred:
Could it be that the Al Qaeda network is trying to acquire more ships or vessels? Your guess is as good as mine. But here is what this analyst has found out…..
Some Facts on Piracy
US Department of State Warning
Last month the US Department of State warned citizens that the threat of terror attacks was still great despite the passing of the second anniversary of September 11th. The State Department’s warnings all seem to be the same, but this one was different….they included the threat of maritime terrorism.
The report further stated that they believe Al Qaeda is striving for attacks on a much grander scale than that of 9-11, possibly involving chemical or biological agents, and that a second catastrophic attack in the US cannot be dismissed.
Now, this leads me to the next "horrific reality...While you might still be asking how all of the above is tying into al Qaeda's Navy, I assure you that by the end, all the pieces of this frightening puzzle will fit together.
Anyone that thinks that the US is immune to being struck by a nuclear device in our lifetime, maybe should think again. The threat is real, the means is there, and possibly already in place, and the pieces of Al Qaeda’s Terrorist Network are starting to fall into place. And, God knows I hope I am wrong.
Before you can understand the reality of it, you need to know what we are dealing with. The following is a brief description of some of the types of bombs that pose a very real threat to us and the world….but before reading further, ponder this thought…imagine a few cans of coffee in New York City…..could you find them? Probably not, and that is what the Intelligence communities are dealing with….read further:
Originally made by the Soviets in the early 60’s. The backpack nuclear system consists of "three coffee-can size aluminum canisters, which must be connected before detonation. The weapon was formally in the custody of the Ninth Directorate of the KGB, close to Soviet leadership. The Directorate having custody of the weapon is similar to a nuclear device being in the custody of the Secret Service."
According to info provided to the CIA, three aluminum canisters are placed in a green canvas case with pockets on the outside. All three must be connected to make a single unit for it to explode. The detonator is about 6 inches long and carried in a "knife like sheath". Depending on the efficiency of the explosion, it has a 3 to 5 kiloton yield and powdered during storage by a battery line connected to the canisters.
Reports state that the system is very small, and it is not necessary to carry it in units…meaning that one person can carry and use this weapon.
Peter Probst, a former Department of Energy intelligence official of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict stated that if " bin Laden were going nuclear, a backpack weapon is the way to go."
The backpack nuke weapon and suitcase nukes are not the same….
Suitcase nuclear bombs are much larger than backpack nukes.
The suitcase bomb is as "large as two footlockers, has dimensions of approximately 24"x16"x8, a yield of one kiloton, and are difficult to set up.
"A small current of power is needed to store the weapon safely near its detonation site. This means that the operator of the weapon would need to run a fine wire up to a power pole. The wire is so fine that if discovered and someone tried to walk back to the source, it would break. The Soviets had programmed these weapons to the point that if the battery was running low, a signal would be sent to a Soviet satellite or the nearest consulate, and if tampered with, the nuclear weapons disabled
Former Soviet military intelligence officer, Stanislav Lunev has confirmed that the Soviets had even made small nuclear weapons "that look like rocks".
If you have reached this point, you are still wondering how this all ties in to bin Laden and Al Qaeda, correct? Please read on….
Nuclear Suitcase Bombs Missing In Russia
Al-Watan al-Arabi, an Arabic language newspaper well organized terrorist’s smuggled nuclear warheads out of Russian territory via secret routes through Uzbekistan. These warheads were said to have been bought with opium and cash from the Russian Mafia..
In Uzbekistan, Soviet scientists removed the active uranium and placed it in backpack-sized nuclear bombs for transportation to the West, undetected.
Sources say that bin Laden has used two tons of Afghanistan opium and $ 30 million cash to buy over 20 nuclear warheads. He has hired rogue nuclear scientists working underground at a ‘base’ to convert these warheads to backpack size nukes that he can distribute all over the world. Analysts believe that he would use them, See more about this at www.newsmax.com/hottopics/Al-Qaeda.shtml other links will be listed at the end.
The public first knew the version that I am talking about in 1997. One of these bombs has an explosive charge equivalent to a thousand pounds of TNT. To give you an idea of the impact of one of these bombs hitting Manhattan, look at this diagram below and the areas it would affect. Please also note that the winds could carry the nuclear fallout all over New York City and parts of New Jersey within hours.
Former Russian National Security Advisor Alexandr Lebed has made allegations that there are 100 of these portable bombs that are unaccounted for and have been since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union. He has also said that these bombs can be activated by a single person and can kill as many as 100,000 people.
"These bombs were developed initially for the KGB and only ‘for terrorist purposes’, and were only to be used by specially trained units to destroy key targets such as power plants during wartime."
Now, ‘dirty bombs’ consist of waste by-products from nuclear reactors, wrapped in conventional explosives. On detonation, these bombs can spew radioactive material into the environment.
Elements such as caesium, cobalt, plutonium or uranium can be oxidized into respirable-sized particles and then disbursed.
The particles would settle as dust and be very difficult to detect and clean-up, leaving many areas inhabitable.
Experts say that the ultimate dirty bomb is a nuclear power station that could serve as a target for a terrorist attack.
Crashing an aircraft into the cooling pool that holds spent fuel could have a devastating effect on the nearby population and the environment.
This is the end of Part One. Part Two begins with tectonic bombs, what they are, and how all of this ties into Al Qaeda’s Navy.
The burning airport
Sheikh Isa air base
As for " a responsible " Kuwait he has given to the unbelievers the services and the next facilitation
Ahmad Al-Jaber ’s rule air
The satellites photos by Ahmad Al-Jaber ’s rule air
Forms to the American presence by Ahmad Al-Jaber ’s rule air
Ali ’s base safe the air :
The satellites photos to Ali ’s base safe the air
Forms to the American presence are Ali ’s base the safe the air
The satellites photos to Oraifijan camp
The Doha camp
Air photos to the Doha camp :
A rule is the attribution of the
activities of the naval leadership the central is a Balgfir
Facilitation in Salman ’s port
Forms to the American presence by the Doha camp
The forces accumulation camps ( a Kabal)
The international Kuwait airport facilitation
The satellites photos to the international Kuwait airport
Minaa Alahmdi facilitation
The square of Oudira throw
Al Sayliyah camp ( we hope that the
Qatari soldiers are available to them what is an availability to the
unbelievers from prerogatives )
The satellites photos to Al Sayliyah camp
A happy mother rule to the increasing and the provision to the invader crusader unbelievers forces
He led a happy : http://www.ummsaid.com
The satellites photos to the housing village
The site : http://www.opmsang.sppn.af.mil/Eskan_Village/eskan.htm
King Abdalaziz brigade consultants from America unbelievers ( Alhfof )
The base of air Jidda and King Fahd ’s rule the navy is by grandfather
Facilitation to America unbelievers by the Islamic port of Jidda
The site : http://www.ports.gov.sa/jeddah_islamic_port.htm
Capital city Abdalaziz the navy
The capital city Khaled air / a more beautiful rule ( Khamis Mshit )
The news towers ( the two backs )
A city king Khaled the military ( Hafar Al Batin )
Prince Sultan base air ( the saddlebag )
The site : http://www.psab.aorcentaf.af.mil
The satellites photos to prince Sultan base air
Forms to the presence to America unbelievers by prince Sultan rule air
The base of the air Riyadh
A city king Abdalaziz the military / King Faisal ’s rule air ( Tabuk )
The touring base air
A port gushes
The site : http://www.ports.gov.sa/ports.htm
As for " a responsible " Emirates he has come the rules and the facilitation next to the unbelievers from Jewish and America Christian
The rule of the air Alzfra
Maintenance station and the ships fuel ( Fujuirah )
The international Fujuirah airport
Ali ’s mountain port ( one of of the ports explainer to the forces of America unbelievers )
The site : http://www.dpa.co.ae
Facilitation by Zayed ’s port
The site : http://www.portzayed.gov.ae
Facilitation by a sensible port
The site : http://www.dpa.co.ae/mn-pr.htm
are about to read is a compilation of intelligence and information
gathered from various sources ranging from press releases issued by the
White House to various communications made by known or suspected
terrorists on both open and “closed”
forums. The opinions and theories stated here are those of this analyst
based exhaustive research and analysis of the data referenced above. Any
information contained in this analysis that could be interpreted as a
threat to the
To those not wishing to be informed of the possibility of a catastrophic event occurring within the United States that intelligence findings suggest “will make September 11th, 2001 pale in comparison,” you would be well advised to avoid reading the following analysis. It has proven to be an exhaustive investigation with many twists and turns into areas that shocked even this analyst.
What I present to you here is at times shocking and frightening, but should not be construed as a conspiracy theory or a prediction of “Doomsday.”
However, make no mistake…
Threats Are There, The Ships Are Real…
Possibilities That Exist….
is Part Two
Analysis Of Its Potential Danger
St. Claire, Associate Director, Network Analyst
During an interview conducted
in May 2002, United States Vice President, Dick Cheney spoke of another
terrorist attack in the
"We don't know if it's going to be tomorrow, or next week or next year," Cheney said.. The U.S.-led war on terrorism has had some successes at disrupting the al Qaeda terrorist network, making it more difficult for them to carry out operations, he noted, but it's almost impossible to build "a 100 percent perfect defense."
"The American people must understand the reality of the enemy we're up against," he stressed. Even if your defense is 99 percent successful, that other one percent "can still kill you." 
It has been 27 months
since the attacks of 9/11 at the time of this writing, and 18 months since
the vice president cautioned that we must be prepared. Where do we stand
now in terms of our preparation status? My analysis clearly indicates that
WE ARE NOT PREPARED
and have taken few significant steps to protect our country in any
meaningful way against the specific threats I will identify in this
For those readers who have grown weary of hearing about imminent terrorist attacks in the United States and feel like you are you reading another “the sky is falling” analysis, I urge you to understand that it is not a question of IF, but a matter of when and where it will occur and by what means. This analysis addresses the latter two possibilities:
Protection of Our Ports and Coastlines
on the intelligence and data reviewed by this analyst and the
multi-faceted investigation conducted over the course of the last few
months, I am convinced that an attack by ship, underwater, or through the
use of tectonic weapons is indeed on the “short list” of possible
of the most disturbing facts I have discovered from my research is that I
have found very little to support any conclusion that the
example, recently there was a ship docked in
The Athena went through a similar scenario in South Korea.
It is supposedly on its way to
on the interception of the Athena, it would appear to the average person
that our coastline, and in particular the shores along the
fleet of ships, vessels and other watercraft that Al Qaeda is reported to
have sailing under various “flags of convenience” vary in size and
classification. The smaller
commercial fishing type boats enjoy greater freedom of movement and can
perhaps be the most dangerous as they can slip in and out of ports
relatively undetected. These
smaller boats have also been known to be explosive laden and ram larger
boats in a suicide-homicide style attack.
Laden has been investing heavily in naval terrorist assets, intelligence
sources say. They report that al Qaeda has purchased a number of small
vessels for suicide strikes in the
at most ports around the
Qaeda Entering The
October of 2002, a 50-foot wooden freighter, undetected by the Coast
Guard, ran aground near downtown
At the risk of being labeled as a “conspiracy theorist,” my on-line research of open-source documentation has indicated that there is much about these weapons of mass destruction that someone, somewhere does not want disseminated to the general public. Tectonic weapons may just be the weapons of mass destruction that we should fear the most. The effects of this weapon are relatively unknown and speculated upon at best. It is indeed known and accepted, however, that once such a device has been detonated, there is not any way to predict the affects it will have on humans, on our atmosphere, our land, or the entire world. Tectonic weapons exist for one purpose alone, which is the alteration of destruction of the earth’s eco-system and ultimately human life. These weapons are detonated by remote control, and as indicated above, their long-term consequences are unpredictable.
is trying to keep these devastating weapons under wraps from the general
public can not do so anymore…. credible evidence and exhaustive
investigation suggests that these weapons of mass destruction are likely
already in the hands of Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda Terrorist
general public has a right to know what they are, where they are used,
what purpose they could serve in the hands of terrorists, and what the
consequences could be…..
this…. you are sitting in your office, and you hear a news report saying
that a major earthquake has just occurred on the West Coast.
The epicenter is a few miles off the coastline north of
article published recently on one of the Internet sites identified with
Al-Qaeda, endorsing annihilation of the United States and its allies
through use of nuclear and biological weapons, conveys, according to the
security source, the urgent need for cooperation in the fight against
so that no one should think that after they leave the island of [the
Prophet] Mohammed [the
And now, the end approaches at the
hand of the enlightened [Islamic] youth astride their horses [fighting the
war against the infidels]; they will dismount either as victors or
vanquished [i.e. - fall in holy war for Allah] . . .
The FATWA Giving Permission For The Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Just last month, he issued a new fatwa entitled “The Legal Status of
Using Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Infidels.”
This fatwa lays religious arguments for the use of weapons of mass
destruction against Americans, including women and children.
Al-Fahd asserts, and I’m quoting again: "The weapons of mass
destruction will kill any infidels on whom they fall, regardless of
whether they are fighters, women or children.
They will destroy and burn the land.
The arguments for the permissibility are many."
بن حمد الفهد
ربيع الأول -
ربيع الأول -
A letter In
weapons of mass destruction use judgement
Bn Hamad the jaguar
The Rabi I – 1424
weapons, if large enough, could be detonated along these plates,
triggering earthquakes of tremendous magnitude, causing tsunamis and a
catastrophic loss of life in addition to massive property damage.
Although it is the position of this analyst based on extensive research
that al Qaeda has the means to do just that, certain members of our
Intelligence community would likely argue this point relentlessly. Tie all
of this in with unsecured ports along those coastlines and we are looking
at the exacerbation of an already potentially serious situation. If you
still do not believe that it could happen, I ask you to consider the
Quakes of Convenience Around The World
would happen if
A 150 kiloton bomb constructed by terrorists is
detonated in the heart of
There is no warning. The population has not been evacuated nor sought
shelter. Both measures could reduce casualties.
There is clear weather, with visibility of 10 miles (16 km).
This is an isolated attack, leaving the rest of the country free to
A large percentage of the day time population is outside - 25%.
The daytime population density is roughly uniform and about 125,000 per
The shock wave will spread out uniformly in all directions, being
minimally affected by structures.
second after detonation
At the end of the first second, the shock wave
will have an overpressure of 20 psi. at a distance of four tenths of a
mile from ground zero. Even the most heavily reinforced steel and concrete
buildings will be destroyed. These buildings include the
This circle contains a daytime population of
roughly 75,000. There will be no survivors. Those caught outside will be
exposed to the full effects of the blast, including severe lung and ear
drum damage and exposure to flying debris. Those in the direct line of
sight of the blast will be exposed to a thermal pulse in excess of 500
cal/sq.cm., causing instant death. Those inside, though shielded from some
of the blast and thermal effects, will be killed as buildings collapse.
fireball will have a maximum radius of 1,023 feet (0.2 miles). However,
the blast effects will greatly outweigh any direct thermal effects due to
seconds after detonation
An overpressure of at least 10 psi. extends out
for 1 mile. Concrete and steel reinforced commercial buildings will be
destroyed or severely damaged out to the edge of this ring. The few
buildings that remain standing on the outside edge of this ring will have
their interiors destroyed. Though the thermal pulse is intense enough to
ignite most materials, the shock wave will likely extinguish most fires in
this ring. Landmarks affected by the blast at this distance include the
Most people inside buildings will be killed by
flying debris or die as the buildings collapse. Almost all those outside
and not in the direct line of sight of the blast will receive lung and ear
drum injuries to varying degrees. Those in the direct line of sight will
be killed instantly by the thermal pulse. Fatalities are estimated at
300,000 with many of the remaining 100,000 receiving some form of
non-fatal injury. Those people in this ring making use of
seconds after detonation
In the next two seconds the shock wave moves out
another half mile, extending the destruction out to a 1.5 mile radius. The
overpressure has dropped to 5 psi. at the outer edge of this ring, which
covers an area of 4 square miles. Reinforced structures are heavily
damaged and unreinforced residential type structures of brick and wood are
destroyed. Affected structures include Carnegie Hall, the
This ring contains 500,000 people during the
day. About 190,000 will be killed inside buildings by flying debris. This
is roughly half of the assumed indoor population. The other 190,000 will
suffer varying degrees of injuries. Most of those outside and not in the
direct line of sight of the explosion will escape direct injury from the
blast, but may be injured by flying objects. The thermal pulse is still
sufficiently intense (40 cal/sq.cm.) to kill anyone in the direct line of
sight; approximately 30,000. Those people fortunate enough to be under
ground will escape with no injuries. The total number of injured will be
approximately 220,000, leaving roughly 60,000 uninjured.
This region contains the most severe fire
hazard, since fire ignition and spread are more likely in partly damaged
buildings than in completely flattened areas. Perhaps 5% of the building
would be initially ignited, with fire spread to adjoining buildings highly
likely. Fires will continue to spread for 24 hours at least, ultimately
destroying about half the buildings.
seconds after detonation
This band extends out to a 2.5 mile radius and
has an overpressure at the outside edge of 2 psi. Reinforced structures
will receive varying amounts of damage, with those buildings at the edge
being almost completely undamaged. Wood and brick buildings will receive
moderate amounts of initial damage, with the damage becoming less
significant at the outside edge of the ring.
An estimated 235,000 people (15%) will be
fatalities in this ring, with another 525,000 injured to varying degrees.
No injuries will be due directly to the blast overpressure, however the
thermal pulse will still be sufficient to kill or incapacitate those not
indoors or otherwise protected. The degree of injury from the thermal
pulse will depend greatly on clothing and skin color. Darker clothing and
skin will absorb more of the energy, giving a more severe burn. The
material type and thickness will also determine the severity of burns from
the thermal pulse.
The possibility of delayed damage due to fire is
very real in this band. The energy in the thermal pulse will still be
sufficient to start combustible materials on fire, yet the overpressure
and accompanying wind will be less likely to put out these fires. If only
a small percentage of the buildings start on fire many may be damaged as
the fire spreads out of control since the capability to fight fires will
be non-existent. It may be 24 hours or more before the resources are
available to even begin to fight fires.
seconds after detonation
This band extends out for almost 4 miles and has
an overpressure of 1 psi. at its outside edge. At the inner edge there
will be light to moderate amounts of damage to unreinforced buildings of
brick and wood. Reinforced structures and commercial buildings will
receive light damage at most. This band extends out to the site of the
Though this ring covers an additional 30 square
miles, much of this area is over water or less densely populated areas.
The affected population in this ring is estimated to be 500,000. There
will be almost no fatalities in this ring and only a small percentage,
roughly 30,000, will receive injuries from the thermal pulse.
Flashblindness and permanent retinal injuries from the blast will extend
out beyond 20 miles. Since this is a ground level explosion, the number of
people who will be looking in the direction of the blast and have a clear
view, will be much less than if the explosion had taken place several
thousand feet above the city.
A surface explosion will produce much more early
fallout than a similarly sized air burst where the fireball never touches
the ground. This is because a surface explosion produces radioactive
particles from the ground as well as from the weapon. The early fallout,
will drift back to earth on the easterly prevailing wind, creating an
elliptical pattern stretching from ground zero out into
Possible late effect; possible chromosomal damage.
Temporary reduction in white blood cells
Mild radiation sickness within a few hours: vomiting, diarrhea,
fatigue; reduction in resistance to infection.
Serious radiation sickness effects as in 100-200 rem and
hemorrhage; exposure is a Lethal Dose to 10- 35% of the population after
30 days (LD 10-35/30).
Serious radiation sickness; also marrow and intestine destruction;
Acute illness, early death; LD 60-95/30.
Acute illness, early death in days; LD 100/10.
In this simulated attack we have assumed that
With almost 900,000 people injured to various
degrees, the task of caring for the injured will be beyond the ability of
the medical system to respond. All but one of
Transportation of the injured and the ability to bring in the necessary
supplies, people and equipment will be dependent on the condition of the
tunnels and bridges that connect
It is likely that many tens of thousands of people would become
homeless. Creation of temporary shelter would be among the first recovery
tasks after all the trapped and injured had been found and cared for. True
20 square miles of property destruction ( 2 psi.),
KATU-2 TV: http://www.katu.com/news/story.asp?ID=63049
 Tactical Defense Concepts, October 2003 http://www.tdconcepts.com/subscriber/1108.html