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This Ramadan May Be Quite Different

The Tet holiday shares this similarity to Ramadan. For years there was pre-Tet holiday paranoia that the North Vietnamese would use the Tet holiday to launch attacks just as we have done with Ramadan over the last five years. The similarity is uncanny if you think about it. We are now treating Ramadan each year much as we did the Tet holiday in years prior to 1968.

By Randy Taylor Independent Analyst
rtaylor@homelandsecurityus.com

22 September 2006: I remember right after September 11th 2001 there was much apprehension in the air in both 2002 and 2003 that Ramadan, the Islamic holy month would be when we could expect trouble from al Qaeda and Islamic terrorists. Both years as I was in contact with authorities there was a certain nervousness and uneasiness in the voices of the people I was communicating with.

Both Ramadan time periods came and went without an incidents and there was the obvious sigh of relief. Since then we have seen the Ramadan periods of 2004 and 2005 also pass without incident. Somehow, I think this is going to change in 2006.There are many indicators that something is in the final planning stages and whatever it is appears to have possibly been scheduled earlier, was delayed and whatever it is, it doesn’t seem to be isolated to any one geographical region.

There are indications that there will be a huge upsurge in violence in Iraq. There was a communiqué recently in an al Qaeda communications area that stated during the month of Ramadan we could expect an official announcement that the Army of Ansar al-Sunnah will be joining the ranks of the al Qaeda umbrella organization of the Mujahideen Shura Council in Iraq. This is significant in that the Army of Ansar al-Sunnah has long been independent of MSC making it a very effective terrorist insurgent organization operationally because it hasn’t received the dedicated attention of the coalition forces and Iraqi forces near as much as the MSC has prior to the death of it’s longtime leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The number of insurgents in this organization of the Army of Ansar al-Sunnah is a significant number in comparison to the smaller groups under the MSC umbrella.

If you watch their films closely where the Army of Ansar al-Sunnah perform firefight type frontal attacks and raids on police stations and Iraqi National Guard compounds and installations, they always show up in significant numbers, more than enough to devastate their opponents. They are every bit as ruthless and cunning as any insurgent group and they are sure to give the overall insurgent ability to wage attacks a substantial boost especially in man power. I fully expect to see what I will call a huge “Ramadan Offensive” take place in Iraq especially around Baghdad.

There have been many written hints at freeing prisoners from somewhere and I don’t think that “place” is Guantanamo as it seems to indicate somewhere in the Middle East. I would go as far as to speculate on the possibility of an attempt to free Saddam Hussein and his henchmen from captivity, however unsuccessful that attempt may turn out to be. If by chance they did free Saddam, the political fallout for our current administration would be devastating beyond repair. Thus, this could and may be a viable plan in the works. The enemy is well aware of the growing unpopularity of this war in this country and they may well intend to capitalize on this. Breaking the former dictator out of captivity and giving him asylum in Syria or Iran would be a political death blow here at home for the people who have defended the reasons for the war in Iraq.

There are communications being analyzed by myself and others which may also indicate something happening in the country of Saudi Arabia and possibly involving the Royal family there. There is nothing definitive or concrete that I can share with you, just rumblings in various places. Odd little snippets of information that indicate troubled times ahead for the House of Saud. Once again, that type of coup, overthrow or assassination would prove very troublesome for not only the current administration but this country in multiple aspects.

Let us not forget that we were just recently issued a warning under the guise of “an Invitation to Islam” by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Adam Gadahn which by Sharia law the bad guys are required to do before they attack and kill us.

If we hear from Osama Bin Laden in the next week or so suddenly, then it would be safe to say that even more sinister plans are underway perhaps even here in the United States. According to the well known Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, who has access to people like Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, this is exactly what will transpire. We have to wait and see.

The delicate cease fire between Hezbollah and Israel may be in jeopardy as well since there is no indication that the two Israeli soldiers will ever be released and we are on the verge of the Jewish New Year followed by Yom Kippur, the Jewish holiday. Rumor had it that Osama Bin Laden’s son recently was headed in the direction of Palestine and Gaza to take over operations there against Israel, so that entire regional tinderbox could go up at any time. I think we all know that al Qaeda, the Taliban, Iran and Syria would like to see a Jewish New Year drenched in the blood of the infidels. They thirst for our blood.

The other primary reason I surmise that there could be a huge Ramadan offensive is because al Qaeda and our enemies have studied us in detail for many years. They know our successes and our failures in warfare over the years. More than once Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi brought up the comparison of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to the Vietnam war. The people of Islam and al Qaeda consider the US as having lost that war and they certainly have taken great care to model much of their strategy on the same strategies used by the North Vietnamese and the Viet Cong. In fact there is little to no difference in the war on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan from the Vietnam war except the terrain and climate. Small hit and run attacks, mortar attacks, reprisals against civilians and police, booby traps, ambushes, etc.

When you consider these facts, it is quite possible that al Qaeda and the Islamic terrorists planners also saw the Tet Offensive in 1968 as the major turning point in the war. The Tet holiday shares this similarity to Ramadan. For years there was pre-Tet holiday paranoia that the North Vietnamese would use the Tet holiday to launch attacks just as we have done with Ramadan over the last five years. The similarity is uncanny if you think about it. We are now treating Ramadan each year much as we did the Tet holiday in years prior to 1968. I think that this has been noted by al Qaeda and the other Islamic terrorists and we may well see history repeat itself. I look for massive enemy movement in Iraq, multiple attacks on multiple fronts and an overall huge offensive with multiple targets unknown. Problem is in 1968 we were fighting in a more defined area. Today, the area of warfare is the entire world. This could mean offensives against the US and coalition forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and may be compounded by attacks against Israel by Hezbollah, Hamas, Ezzedeen Martyrs Brigades and al Qaeda in Palestine with the backing of Iran and Syria.

If there is action against the government is Saudi Arabia by al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, and the potential for attacks in non-Muslim countries such as the UK, US, Italy, Germany, France, Canada or Denmark then we would have our hands full. The only reason I mention so many places and so many targets is because of the numerous references recently in communiqués, documents and other methods of communication that thousands of mujahideen have been dispatched to numerous places. There have been some conservative estimates of 200,000 to 300,000 al Qaeda trained operatives scattered throughout the world and we have only killed and captured maybe some 5000-6000. That leaves the vast majority unaccounted for.

Food for thought as we witness the beginning of Ramadan.

Be safe, stay vigilant.

09.22.06

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