Analysis: Weapons seized in US-Mexican border town suggest large-scale operation

By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs

25 February 2007: Over the past couple of days, I have analyzed additional imagery and data associated with the report of a large cache of weapons and other military supplies seized in Tamaulipas, Mexico across from Brownsville, Texas.  Contrary to various public assessments, my analysis suggests that these weapons were not intended for an assault of one Mexican narco-gang against a rival gang within the territory of Mexico, but were intended for a larger and more specific operation within the United States.

My analysis involved additional images other than what is shown below, and noted that there were a total of three civilian up-armored vehicles with bullet-proof glass seized in this shipment. The assault weapons and ammunition seized was sufficient to equip 3 six-man squads of a special operations capable strike force, with at least 400 rounds per man. The rifle and handgun ammunition consisted of armor-piercing, tracer and hollow point rounds; the M203 grenade launcher ammunition was primarily of the fragmentary type along with one armor-piercing round. This force is assessed to be comprised of former Mexican Army troops known as Zetas in addition to Islamic terrorist operatives.

The potential targets of this force range from an outrageous and unprecedented raid to liberate the Mexican Gulf Cartel narco-boss, Osiel Cardenas GUILLEN, currently being held for trial in Houston, Texas to other possibilities such as an assault on a state legislature or a similar body in Texas or elsewhere within the U.S. One other possibility includes the execution of a very large “false-flag” operation. This assessment continues as new information is being developed.

The types, the quantities, and the nature of the various weapons and ammunition seized, in addition to the other miscellaneous military equipment and vehicles are assessed to be directly related to a special operations-like assault of significant magnitude somewhere in the USA rather than utilization in a narco-gang war in Mexico. It is obvious that a large-scale operation was set to be executed in the very near term. Additional analysis and investigation is continuing.

CRITICAL UPDATE: 1 MARCH 2007 (UPDATE 2 OF 2)By Doug Hagmann, Director, and Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs

Additional analysis of weapons seizure: Intelligence obtained by the Northeast Intelligence Network suggests that the weapons seized at the Mexican-U.S. border could be used to launch an attack against U.S. military bases, especially those situated in the southwestern United States. Information obtained from military and intelligence sources indicate that military assets within the U.S. are at increased risk of attack by Islamic terrorists already present with the U.S., having entered the country illegally via the border with Mexico. Our investigation is continuing.