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Lebanon, Syria & Israel: The Coming War

Posted By Sean Osborne On February 9, 2007 @ 2:05 am In Intelligence Analysis,Iran,Israel,Sean Osborne | Comments Disabled

“There is war coming to this border region, a very big war is coming. Iran and Syria with their terrorist proxies are spoiling for a very big war.” –Sean Osborne

By Sean Osborne, [1] Associate Director, Military Affairs

9 February 2007: The brief firefight of a day ago between Lebanese and Israeli ground forces was more serious and of more significant consequence than many people seem to realize. It was not just another fire fight or skirmish between Arabs and Jews in the Middle Bast. This event was something else.

Consider the core facts of the matter.

The impotent, virtually useless Lebanese Army, an army which cannot even maintain effective control over its own sovereign territory, intentionally engaged an Israeli armored force executing a border security mine-clearing mission while on sovereign Israeli territory.

Before August 2006 such an engagment would have been unthinkable for the Lebanese Army. Virtually suicidal by any tactical standard. Like a kitten taking a swipe at an adult pit bull.

After August 2006 not only was such an attack thinkable but the potential repercusions were competently considered beforehand and determined to be desirable by the Lebanese Army field commander. Moreover, the Lebanese commander had been very well advised by the Israeli commander that he had no intention of crossing the blue line and entering Lebanese territory. Yet, this Lebanese commander still ordered his forces to engage fires with the Israeli armored force.

Why? For what purpose or tactical necessity did the Lebanese engage the Israeli force?

The Lebanese Army must have known Hezbollah had placed those Iranian shaped-charge mines on Israeli territory, and they must have known the Israeli’s would come and clear them. The Lebanese Army sat and waited for the Israeli force to show up. The Israeli’s did. The Israeli’s told the Lebanese they were going to clear the mines.

Therefore it seems obvious that the entire operation of placing of the mines on Israeli soil must have been a set-up, a trap to provoke or achieve some tactical result above and beyond what this event appears to have been in hindsight. It is a failed tactical repeat of the kidnapping event of July 2006.

The Lebanese Army is either working in coordination with Hezbollah, or that was no Lebanese Army unit, but Hezbollah soldiers in Lebanese Army uniforms and vehicles.

There is war coming to this border region, a very big war is coming. Iran and Syria with their terrorist proxies are spoiling for a very big war. I see no other tactical explanation which makes an iota of sense.

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