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World War IV: Phase II - Short-term assessment

Posted By Sean Osborne On August 20, 2006 @ 7:06 am In Intelligence Analysis,Israel,Sean Osborne | Comments Disabled

“World main stream media has been all too willing from the onset of this war to paint Israel as the aggressor, guilty of disproportionate response. There is no doubt that Israel is the nation that main stream world media as well as many people in this world most love to hate.”

By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs
sosborne@homelandsecurityus.com

20 August 2006: This is a sequel and companion to my article entitled “World War IV” which was web published by the Northeast Intelligence Network on July 22, 2006. This date, as it happens, was just one month prior to the events I suspect will very shortly transpire. Background to both reports can be found at the end of this article and was originally web published by the Northeast Intelligence Network on January 31, 2006.

There is no mistaking the fact that Israel has lost the Phase I engagement of this war, which also unmistakably is a multi-phased war, long-planned in advance by the strategic chess masters in Iran. Phase I was initiated with the proxy abduction of Israeli soldiers by HAMAS and Hezbollah. These abductions were specifically planned to precipitate a major Israeli military offensive. The Iranian War Operations Plan worked flawlessly. Result: a two-front war for Israel with defeat in Lebanon to the north and a self-imposed stalemate in Gaza to the south. If you are an existential enemy of Israel, what’s not to like? How can you possibly be disheartened? In fact, these results embolden Israel’s enemies to move in for the kill as they deem it will be — the destruction of the State of Israel and the “liberation” of Jerusalem.

In my opinion this result is due to the ‘perfect storm’ consisting in its many parts of the political ineptitude of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and the military ineptitude of Gen. Dan Halutz which were compounded and multiplied by the unwarranted interference of the US State Department, the office of Xavier Solana of the European Union as well as the United Nations in the legitimate Israeli rights of self-defense and self-preservation in the face of unprecedented existential threats to the State of Israel made manifest by Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Islamofascist proxies.

With Israel having the current leadership and allies such as these, what have Israel’s enemies to fear?

The ‘on-the-ground’ fact is that Israeli military preparations for the Lebanon operation were abysmal from any perspective chosen to assess in any after-action report. Many of the IDF soldiers are lucky to have survived, and they are justifiably outraged at the result and the dishonorable retreat forced upon them after such hard fought battlefield gains were achieved. The invading IDF had no actionable intelligence of what they were going into; Hezbollah was a trained professional military force and not the ragtag Islamic mercenaries as was apparently briefed to the Israel commanders. It is my current understanding that IDF officers and non-commissioned officers alike disobeyed suicidal orders from clueless leadership in Israel. All of Israel is lucky the body count was as actually low as it was, particularly the tank corps. Hindsight being 20/20, most IDF units were ordered to engage Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC troops without the benefit of the “7 P’s:”

Proper Planning and Preparation Prevent Piss Poor Performance

It is also my opinion that these same IDF veterans’s will ensure Prime Minster Ehud Olmert’s removal, and perhaps the retirement of Lt.Gen. Dan Halutz. Binyamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz are my choices to ride to Israel’s rescue at this point. Phase II of the Iranian war plan looms large and imminent and time’s a wastin’.

Phase II

I suspect that Phase II of this war will be vastly different, in both scope and end result. The Iranians and Syrians are as cocky as ever, even though the Israel Defense Forces did exact a very high toll from the Hezbollah/IRGC regular formations. However, Iran and Syria are convinced that Israel is easy pickings based upon the combat performance to date. They believe their strategic combat depth will outlast Israel’s.

They are in for a very rude and abrupt re-awakening into to real world realities.

The Deputy Commander of the regular Iranian armed forces, Brigadier General Mohammed Reza Ashtiani, announced on16 August 2006, that large-scale Iranian war games would commence on 19 August 2006 and continue for an indefinite period of time. These military maneuvers are well underway, and I believe are the initiation of the Iranian Phase II battleplan.

The code name for the Iranian exercise is “The Blow of Zolfaghar.” “Zolfaghar” is the name given to the sword belonging to Imam Ali ibn Abu Talib during initial Islamic conquests at the Battles of Badr, Uhud and many other wars of Islamic conquest. Imam Ali is the man the Shi’a most highly revere as the first true Islamic Caliph after Muhammed.

The “Blow of Zolfaghar” operations were launched just two days prior to when Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad has stated the West would receive Iran’s response to issues over its nuclear weapons program, and a not-so-veiled threat of a “light show” over Jerusalem, Israel. The date also coincides with the completely mythical “night flight” of Muhammed from Mecca to Jerusalem, then to Heaven and Hell and back to Mecca.

It has occurred to me that what the delusional sock-puppet Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad and his Ayatollah’s intend for August 21/22 is a strike which will ignite the entire Muslim world into uncontrollable rage against Israel. Reference the Hojjatieh’s self-defined mission in this regard at the link below this article. The strike I believe which is possible, if not probable, and intended specifically to achieve these goals would consist of Iranian agents or proxy activity executed to either significantly damage or destroy the Dome of the Rock on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount – and then play Israel as the perpetrator.

World main stream media has been all too willing from the onset of this war to paint Israel as the aggressor, guilty of disproportionate response. There is no doubt that Israel is the nation that main stream world media as well as many people in this world most love to hate. Main stream media will not miss yet another opportunity to be Ahmadi-Nejad’s own personal sock-puppets; they’ve done a fine and dandy job of this up to this point.

I suspect this strike may occur within 72 hours from now. The purpose would be to precipitate an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran and Syria proper and re-ignite the war in Lebanon and in Gaza, thus creating a three or four front existential war for Israel.

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