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Iran: The Nuclear Armed Terrorist State Sponsor

Posted By Sean Osborne On April 16, 2006 @ 4:30 am In Intelligence Analysis,Iran,Sean Osborne,Weapons of Mass Destruction | Comments Disabled

By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs Expert

16 April 2006: There is the very high probability that within the next few days Iran will fully accept and adopt all aspects of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and will announce yet another unilateral suspension of the current enrichment processes.

This a brilliant chess move and one entirely expected by some observers.

The President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, announced to the world last week that Iran has successfully enriched its own uranium. CHECK MATE. The cat is out of the bag and the genie is out of the bottle in Iran. Iran has the technological capability to indigenously produce nuclear weapons. Again, in case you missed it the first time, CHECK MATE.

Allow me to explain.

During the course of the diplomacy game which has been afoot for the past couple of years in the wrangling over Iranian nuclear activities and ultimate ambitions, the result of such an announcement by Ahmadi-Nejad does three things:

1. It places the burden on the United States to promptly back down from “rumors of war” threats. The public perception created by mass-media reporting is that Iran bought the technological know-how for nuclear capability and the means of delivery; with this announcement Iran is at the minimum a regional nuclear power. So are Pakistan, India and Israel. This is the new, existing paradigm of the Middle East. In the court of world opinion any US attack on these working Iranian facilities will be seen by the world as blatant aggression, one nuclear-armed state attempting to reverse the de-facto status of another nuclear-armed state. The US will continue to contingency plan like crazy. However, ultimately the U.S. will do nothing but accept this new reality. Furthermore, the U.S. will not risk any further drama to the prices consumers are paying for petroleum products. Ayatollah Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad are counting on it.

2. The UN will back-off voting for sanctions. What else would you expect from such a feckless group? Maybe there’s an Iranian Oil-for-Food and Nuclear Kick-back somewhere in their future?

3. The EU-3 (UK, France and Germany) will also be forced to accept Iranian nuclear club membership as fait accompli. They’ll go as the US goes. Large Islamic populations in their homelands (Eurabia) pretty much clinched the fact that they’d do nothing concrete regarding Iranian nuclear ambition. They understood going in that their capital cities would be at risk from Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles before the US would. The European’s got what they bargained for.

From my perspective, the big winners here are obviously the Iranian’s. They have their nuclear capability intact, and the technology to deliver warheads to boot. If Armageddon occurs as they envision it – it will occur on their terms, which was what they wanted to begin with. The other winners are the Russian’s, who have their Iranian nuclear client and rich military contracts to boot. Iran will purchase more and more sophisticated Russian weaponry with the billions in cash they receive from the other winners in this whole affair - the Red Chinese. The Chicom’s have their primary oil source and technology trading partner intact and a little more powerful than before. Not a bad outcome from a standard chess gambit they all played to the hilt.

So, what’s next? What comes from the success of this blatant military-technological expansion in Iran? Look west towards the frontiers of Lebanon, Syria and Israel. That’s where the board pieces will now commence the next round of the game.

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