Updated Analysis: Osama Bin Laden’s Audio Message

By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs Specialist

UPDATED 21 JANUARY 2006:  If there is a key to when this audio tape was recorded by Osama bin Laden, I believe it is to be found in his references to 1) American polls and 2) President Bush’ remarks about the war in Iraq and elsewhere.

Based upon these reference points I believe Bin Laden recorded this audio message within the past month, perhaps within the past two weeks:

1.)  It is my assessment that Bin Laden is refering to the AP-Ipsos poll of January 6, 2006. This is the most recent Associated Press-Ipsos Poll results which specifically apply to the gist of Bin Laden’s words, and are contained in questions 5  and 6 of that poll:

When it comes to handling foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism, do you approve or disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue?

_Approve, 44 percent (45)

_Disapprove, 54 percent (53)

_Mixed feelings, 1 percent (2)

_Not sure, X percent (X)

6. When it comes to handling the situation in Iraq, do you approve or disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue?

_Approve, 39 percent (41)

_Disapprove, 58 percent (58)

_Mixed feelings, 2 percent (1)

_Not sure, X percent (X)

2.) President Bush spoke to the nation via television on Sunday, December 18, 2005. President Bush’ words in that speech to the American people are also reflected in the text of Bin Laden’s comments:

“The terrorists do not merely object to American actions in Iraq and elsewhere they object to our deepest values and our way of life. And if we were not fighting them in Iraq  in Afghanistan  in Southeast Asia  and in other places, the terrorists would not be peaceful citizens  they would be on the offense, and headed our way.

September 11th, 2001 required us to take every emerging threat to our country seriously, and it shattered the illusion that terrorists attack us only after we provoke them. On that day, we were not in Iraq  we were not in Afghanistan  but the terrorists attacked us anyway  and killed nearly 3,000 men, women, and children in our own country. My conviction comes down to this: We do not create terrorism by fighting the terrorists. We invite terrorism by ignoring them. And we will defeat the terrorists by capturing and killing them abroad  removing their safe havens  and strengthening new allies like Iraq and Afghanistan in the fight we share.”

Based upon these facts, I have come to the assessment that Usama bin Laden composed at least this part of the audio tape which Al Jazeera has released as a direct response to both President Bush’ live television address of December 18, 2005 and the most recent AP-Ipsos poll data. This is consistent with bin Laden’s image of himself as a world leader as was seen in his last address to the American people just prior to the presidential election in 2004.

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Continuing my analysis of what I believe to be a full and accurate rendition of the excepted portion of Osama bin Laden’s audio communication from yesterday.

I have been proceding with this analysis by literally placing the text of Usama bin Laden’s October 29, 2004 speech and this current one side-by-side. I consider this to be an apples-to-apples approach - both speeches are specifically directed to the American people.

One item of significance jumps out immediately.

As stated, I have quite literally printed out both english language transcripts and laid them side-by-side. The difference in volume is stunning - the full text of the October 29, 2004 speech has 1 1/2 times as many words as does the current text. This means there may well be a significant portion of the text being withheld under Al Qaeda direction to Al Jazeera. This is not a new thing, such with-holding of video or audio communiques by Al Qaeda leadership is quite common.  It is significant only in the sense of the disparity in the volume between the two texts, which is to state - there’s much more to come.

Secondary items of note but of equal import to other items being assessed:

1. There are zero Qur’an references.

2. Both the 2004 video and the current audio were released within 1 month of a datable reference point:

( In the 2004 release the datable reference is the entering of the 4th year following the events of 9/11. This indicates that video tape was created between mid-September and mid-October 2004. This is indicative that when Usama bin Laden produces a communique he ensures it is moved to the “market” quickly, in “fresh” condition. In this instance the most important part may have been released first. he understands the American distaste for ‘old news”.)

3. Both texts contain references to domestic American politics.

4. The themes and context of the two speeches are VERY similar. Both contain reference to a “lesson” Osama wants instruct us to learn. Everybody here, well at least most America folk I know would love the opportunity to tell him exactly what he can do with his “lessons”.

Additionally, Usama bin Laden has remained absolutely consistent in all of his messages, from October 2004 and this most recent communique and, furthermore,  going all the way back to his words (which I have thoroughly and intensively reviewed) from 1998.

Based upon everything I have read and studied to date, I think Usama bin Laden is possessed of a hatred not seen since Adolf Hitler.

I am inclined to believe that his insane hatred is the result of demonic possession - there is an evil and a hatred within him which is almost indescribable, and a mere reference to Hitler does not do this justice, again based upon the words from his own mouth.

Osama bin Laden’s hatred of the Jews transcends all events of WWII to the present. Again, in his own words from 1998:

“The enmity between us (Islam) and the Jews goes far back in time and is deep rooted. There is no question that war between the two of us is inevitable.”

Also of equal importance to this hatred for Judaism is his blind hatred of America, due to our support for Israel. The one consistency in everything bin Laden has said over the past 8 years is that America has not absorbed true RECIPROCITY for what he claimed (in his demented rationale) what America has brought upon the world - how we nuked and threw weapons of mass destruction at women and children in Hiroshima and Nagasaki .

Osama bin Laden from 1998:

“The Americans started it and retaliation and punishment should be carried out following the principle of reciprocity, especially when women and children are involved. Through history, American has not been known to differentiate between the military and the civilians or between men and women or adults and children. Those who threw atomic bombs and used the weapons of mass destruction against Nagasaki and Hiroshima were the Americans. Can the bombs differentiate between military and women and infants and children? America has no religion that can deter her from exterminating whole peoples. Your position against Muslims in Palestine is despicable and disgraceful. America has no shame. … We believe that the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. Nothing could stop you except perhaps retaliation in kind. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian.”

Also, Osama bin Laden’s preoccupation with American domestic politics dates back to 1998:

“We say to the Americans as people and to American mothers, if they cherish their lives and if they cherish their sons, they must elect an American patriotic government that caters to their interests not the interests of the Jews. If the present injustice continues with the wave of national consciousness, it will inevitably move the battle to American soil, just as Ramzi Yousef and others have done. This is my message to the American people. I urge them to find a serious administration that acts in their interest and does not attack people and violate their honor and pilfer their wealth.”

And how are we in this country supposed to assess in a purely historical context these final two sentences from the most reviled terrorist of all time:

“Our religion forbids us from killing innocent people such as women and children.”

“We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets, and this is what the fatwah says…”

If Al Qaeda is truly in possession of WMD’s, nuclear, chemical or biological - they will use such weapons against the homeland of the United States - that is the bottom line in assessing any and all things coming from the mouths bin Laden and al-Zawahiri. This is the exact and true meaning of Usama’s message of “reciprocity” and why we must remain engaged at all costs in active, decisive combat with Al Qaeda where ever they are to be found in the world and with every weapon or listening device our tax dollars have paid for or can produce.

UPDATE

According to an Associated Press report:

“Arab television network Al-Jazeera, which released the tape Thursday (19 JAN 06), initially reported it was made in December but corrected itself later to say it was recorded in January. Editors at the station said they could not comment on how they knew when it was made.”

The obvious answer which continues to elude some analysts is the same detail being intentionally withheld by the editors of Al Jazeera. That detail is, as mentioned above, that Al Jazeera still retains and has heard the audio recording from Osama bin Laden in its entirety. Therefore, Al Jazeera, the mouth piece of the Islamic terrorists threateneing our way of life,  has based its corrected recording date assessment upon a specific time reference in the unreleased portion, which would corroborate my initial analysis of audio recording having been completed sometime in the first two weeks of January 2006. The unreleased portion of the audio communication from Osama bin Laden has been embargoed by the editiors of Al Jazeera who are under the strict direction of the Al Qaeda leadership.