Updated Analysis for “Warning Order”

By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs

19 September 2007; UPDATED ANALYSIS: This is an updated analysis of the current Russian strategic long-range aviation nuclear exercise is scheduled to conclude on Friday, 21 September, and related imminent events.

The exercises this month have effectively returned the United States and Russia to the same type of strategic “games” seen so often during the so-called “Cold War.” The rules of these “games” remain unchanged. These rules hold that should Russian aircraft cross what is known as the “line of death” that would be an invitation to full-scale war between the United States and Russia. The Russian have not crossed this line. The recent landing of a U.S. B-52H with live nuclear warheads at Barksdale AFB in Louisiana is a prime indicator that the United States is pro-actively countering the Russian exercises with our own strategic aviation deterrent, known in days gone by as “oil burner” runs. As in the days of the “Cold War,”  the Russia of today is not suicidal, at least not on the level that their Iranian al-Mahdi hastening friends pretend to be.

The crux of the current situation revolves around some imminent events, realities and potential realities. The conclusion of the Russian exercise occurs two days prior to the scheduled arrival of Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad in New York on Sunday 23, September and his possible address to the U.N. General Assembly the following week. We should pay very close attention to the events which transpire while Ahmadi-Nejad is in New York City for the following reasons which are directly related to the Iranian nuclear weapons gambit now approaching its own “line of death.”

Firstly, and from a purely economic standpoint, Russia could care less if Iranian oil was suddenly removed from the world markets as the direct result of a U.S strike against Iranian nuclear, military and economic infrastructure. This potential reality would only increase the real-world market value of Russia’s own vast reserves of “black gold.”

Secondly, we should be mindful that the Russian leadership is not unaware of this potential. As a result of the continued Iranian intransigence in their nuclear weapons program, do not be surprised in the near-term if Russian nuclear technicians disappear from their current projects in Iran. That would be the surest indicator that the kimchee was about to hit the fan for the Ayatollah and his diminutive sock-puppet.